Top 50 Twins Prospects: #5 Danny Valencia

5. Danny Valencia

Third Base

Bats: Right

Age: 25

ETA: 2010

Potential: Above average third baseman

2010 outlook: Minnesota Twins 3B (starting in June)

Danny Valencia was the Twins 19th round draft pick in 2006. He’s posted solid numbers throughout his minor league career. In 2007 he had 17 homers and 23 doubles, in 2008 he had 15 homers and 37 doubles. This year he played at AA and AAA. He hit 14 homers, 38 doubles, and 4 triples. His triple slash was .285/.337/.466. In 487 at-bats, he struck out 77 times and walked 39 times. He only walked 8 times at AAA, so hopefully that is just an anomaly.

Valencia tore it up at AAA when he first arrived there this year, hitting .360/.372/.573 in his first 19 games, but he cooled off considerably at the end of the season. He should arrive in the big leagues sometime in 2010, but the big question is when. It doesn’t look like he will be the starting 3B on opening day, but he should get a shot shortly thereafter. Valencia should be the Twins best Twins 3B since Koskie patrolled the hot corner. I think in the coming years, Valencia will provide above average defense, have a triple slash line of .290/.345/.470, while knocking in 15-25 homers a year.

Top 20 Twins Prospects

Seth over at SethSpeaks.net has posted his updated top 50 Twins prospects. It was a very enjoyable read (as always). Seth is a Twins blogger who I've been reading daily since his first week of blogging in June 2003. His blog is top notch, especially his knowledge on the Twins minor league system. Anyways it was a good read for me since I have been working on my top 20 Twins prospects list this week as well. No commentary on the prospects this time, but after the season ends I'll update the list with commentary. Anyways, here it goes:

1. Aaron Hicks, CF, Beloit

2. David Bromberg, SP, Fort Myers

3. Angel Morales, OF, Beloit

4. Danny Valencia, 3B, Rochester

5. Ben Revere, OF, Fort Myers

6. Danny Rams, C/1B, Beloit

7. Wilson Ramos, C, New Britain

8. Rene Tosoni, OF, New Britain

9. Joe Benson, CF, Fort Myers

10. Carlos Gutierrez, SP, New Britain

11. Adrian Salcedo, SP, GCL Twins

12. Tyler Robertson, SP, Fort Myers

13. Chris Parmalee, OF/1B, Fort Myers

14. Deolis Guerra, SP, New Britain

15. BJ Hermsen P, GCL Twins

16. Jeff Manship SP, Minnesota Twins

17. Anthony Slama, RP, Rochester

18. Luke Hughes, UT, New Britain

19. Rob Delaney, RP, Rochester

20. Mike McCardell, SP, New Britain

Twins acquire SS Orlando Cabrera in exchange for SS Tyler Ladendorf

Oakland GM Billy Beane must have read my last post on Tyler Ladendorf because he was the guy he got in return for Orlando Cabrera. Am I happy with the trade? Yes. But that doesn't mean the Twins gave up nothing to get Cabrera Lets dig a little deeper into the trade. Here are the positives:

-The move shows to Mauer and Morneau that the team is trying to win. Morneau has been saying that Mauer won't resign in 2010 with the Twins if they don't acquire other quality players.

-Mauer and Morneau wanted Cabrera on the team. Cabrera told reporters that last week that every time Mauer and Morneau were on the bases they told Cabrera that they were trying to get him on the team, that they wanted him on the Twins.

-The Twins have has a dreadful middle infield this year, worst in the majors. Cabrera is average, but just average is a huge upgrade from what we had before.

-A new guy will provide a mental boost, a la Shannon Stewart in 2003.

If you read my previous post, you find out that Tyler Ladendorf is a guy with some high upside. He is the best SS prospect we had. But he is no guarantee either and is 3-4 years away. And he's been struggling at the new level he's been called up to. The trade could come back to haunt us, but I wouldn't be too worried about it. I'm just glad we didn't trade away our two top prospects Danny Valencia and Aaron Hicks.

Now here is where this trade could go from being good to great. The Twins were reluctant to part with Ladendorf. In a now related story, the Twins have been one of the leading candidates to sign top Dominican prospect Miguel Angel Sano who also plays shortstop. If the Twins signed Sano to make up for the loss of Ladendorf then I would be extremely happy. Sano has an extremely high ceiling, much higher than Ladendorf's.

Even if that doesn't happen, if this move goes a long ways towards being able to keep Mauer here forever, then it was a grand slam of a trade, regardless of what other consequences come of the trade.

Joe Crede, Trade Bait?

Here's a guy the Twins could trade: Joe Crede. He's likely a guy you haven't thought about trading. He's been a fine player, and our best 3rd baseman since Corey Koskie departed. But there are four negatives I see to keeping him around.

First is his on-base percentage is abysmal. It is .299. That is worse than Nick Punto. Thankfully his 14 homers and top notch defense make him valuable.

Second, he's not that durable. He's missed 24 out of 95 games so far. That is probably better than many had dared to hope, but it is nice when your starters don't miss a couple games per week.

Third, he's gone after this year because he is on a one-year deal. He likely won't be a type A or B free agent, which means we won't get an extra draft pick if he signs with someone else. Trading him will give you value in return for his departure.

Finally, and perhaps the biggest reason why Bill Smith might look into trading him, he signed for relatively little, but his contract is laden with several bonuses that kick in with certain number of plate appearances reached. He's going to start hitting a lot of those pretty soon, which means he will cost us a lot more money.

Now, here's the player that makes Crede expendable: Danny Valencia. The guy has hit .308 BA with a .372 OBP and a .522 SLG overall this year. He was called up to AAA recently and in his 100 at-bats there, he has been even better. 5 homers, 10 doubles, 22 RBI, .370 AVG, and an OPS of .999. Those are some great numbers. And he plays solid defense as well. Valencia is our best prospect in the upper two levels of the minors. He's not a Mauer or Morneau caliber player, but I'd say his skill level is more comparable to Denard Span(with more power and less speed), someone who is solid all-around, and who might sneak in a few all-star appearances during his career.

In other words Danny Valencia is a younger, cheaper, better overall player than Joe Crede is right now. I think one of the easiest and best ways to improve the Twins this season while preparing the way for the future is to package Joe Crede in a deal to get a good shortstop or second baseman, and call up Danny Valencia to play third base. It makes too much sense, and that is why it probably won't happen.