Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Joe Crede, Trade Bait?

Here's a guy the Twins could trade: Joe Crede. He's likely a guy you haven't thought about trading. He's been a fine player, and our best 3rd baseman since Corey Koskie departed. But there are four negatives I see to keeping him around.

First is his on-base percentage is abysmal. It is .299. That is worse than Nick Punto. Thankfully his 14 homers and top notch defense make him valuable.

Second, he's not that durable. He's missed 24 out of 95 games so far. That is probably better than many had dared to hope, but it is nice when your starters don't miss a couple games per week.

Third, he's gone after this year because he is on a one-year deal. He likely won't be a type A or B free agent, which means we won't get an extra draft pick if he signs with someone else. Trading him will give you value in return for his departure.

Finally, and perhaps the biggest reason why Bill Smith might look into trading him, he signed for relatively little, but his contract is laden with several bonuses that kick in with certain number of plate appearances reached. He's going to start hitting a lot of those pretty soon, which means he will cost us a lot more money.

Now, here's the player that makes Crede expendable: Danny Valencia. The guy has hit .308 BA with a .372 OBP and a .522 SLG overall this year. He was called up to AAA recently and in his 100 at-bats there, he has been even better. 5 homers, 10 doubles, 22 RBI, .370 AVG, and an OPS of .999. Those are some great numbers. And he plays solid defense as well. Valencia is our best prospect in the upper two levels of the minors. He's not a Mauer or Morneau caliber player, but I'd say his skill level is more comparable to Denard Span(with more power and less speed), someone who is solid all-around, and who might sneak in a few all-star appearances during his career.

In other words Danny Valencia is a younger, cheaper, better overall player than Joe Crede is right now. I think one of the easiest and best ways to improve the Twins this season while preparing the way for the future is to package Joe Crede in a deal to get a good shortstop or second baseman, and call up Danny Valencia to play third base. It makes too much sense, and that is why it probably won't happen.

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