Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Twins Position Player Trade Value

Here is how I would rank in order, highest to lowest, the trade value of the Twins positional players:

Joe Mauer

Justin Morneau

Denard Span

Jason Kubel

Michael Cuddyer

Carlos Gomez

Delmon Young

Nick Punto

Alexi Casilla

Brendan Harris

Matt Tolbert

Brian Buscher


Looking at that list makes one realize that if the Twins make a trade this offseason, it likely won't be a position player. Mauer and Morneau are off limits, and after Delmon Young, you wouldn't get much in return. Brian Buscher, Alexi Casilla, etc. aren't going to bring back anything great.


The one option they have is to trade someone from the outfield of Span/Kubel/Cuddyer/Gomez/Young. I could see an argument for trading any one of them except Span. Most of the Twins top positional prospects are outfielders, and they will have one at AAA this season in Rene Tosoni. I'd argue that Tosoni could step in and provide as much value overall as Young and Gomez did this season.


I wouldn't trade Young or Gomez at this point, unless they got a lot in return. I just don't think their value is high right now, so they wouldn't get much for them, and trading one of them could come back to haunt you a la Bartlett/Garza.


Kubel and Cuddyer help form part of the heart of the order, but I would trade one of them for a player of similar value at 3B or SS or 2B or a #2 type starting pitcher. I think with the glut of outfielders coming up through the system, the Twins are going to have to trade some outfielders at some point in the upcoming years to make up for other deficiencies that they have.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Good memories from the 2009 Twins season

What a crazy season! Despite a bad ending and extending the playoff games loss streak to 9, I think the good far outweighed the bad this year. Here are some positive things that I will remember:

-Joe Mauer had an MVP season, along with arguably the best season ever for a Twins player and for a catcher.

-Game 163. The best game I've ever seen.

-One of the best comebacks ever happened as the Twins slipped past the Tigers despite being 7 games back in September, and 3 games back with 4 to play.

-Bill Smith went out and signed Miguel Angel Sano.

-Denard Span showed his rookie season was no fluke, and developed into an elite leadoff hitter.

-Michael Cuddyer rebounded in a big way, posing better numbers than anybody dared to hope for.

-Jason Kubel had a big breakout year, and he had over 100 RBI's.

-Bill Smith traded for Orlando Cabrera at the trade deadline.

-Bill Smith didn't give in and trade for (thankfully) Freddy Sanchez, Jarrod Washburn, Jake Peavy, and more.

-Justin Morneau had another 30 HR 100 RBI season despite ending the season on the DL.

-Twins acquired Jon Rauch, Carl Pavano, and Ron Mahay after non-waiver trade deadline, and without them they wouldn't have made the playoffs.

-Scott Baker settled down after a rough start and pitched great.

-Twins had most power they've had in years with Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Kubel (and Crede).

-Guerrier bounced back to become one of the top 8th inning guys after a poor 2008.

-Blackburn pitched like an ace for the first half of the season.

And many, many more. Feel free to add to the list.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Best Game Ever!

That was the best game I've ever seen. If you missed it, even if you're not a Twins fan, you really missed out on a fantastic game. I don't know what else to say at the moment.

Oh yeah, congratulations to Joe Mauer for winning the batting title for the 3rd time in four years. And congrats for being the OBP, SLG, (and OPS) leader of the AL.

I'll try to have a preview of the Twins/Yankees series before it starts tomorrow. Hopefully it will be a rainout because the Twins could probably use a day off.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Is Brian Duensing really this good?

Many Twins fans have been wondering about a certain Twins rookie named Brian Duensing. They want to know who is this guy, and where did he come from?

Brian Duensing, age 26, was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2005. Duensing had pitched at the University of Nebraska before being drafted by the Twins. He actually moved through the minors very rapidly. Duensing was in AAA Rochester by 2007, but the Twins plethora of young starting pitching forced the lower-regarded Duensing to remain at AAA until 2009. His numbers in the minors were very solid; he had a 3.62 ERA in 106 games and a WHIP of 1.29. However, in 2008, his AAA numbers were worse than his AAA numbers of 2007, and this year they were worse than they were in 2008. This caused Duensing to drop off on people's prospect lists and he largely became an afterthought. (Duensing did pitch for Team USA in Beijing and helped the team win a bronze medal.)

Duensing started this season as a lefty reliever for the Twins. His numbers in the bullpen were not pretty; in 30 innings he had a 5.34 ERA, 16 walks, and opponents hit.275 off of him. He was sent down to AAA where his numbers didn't stand out.

When the Twins pitching started to fall apart, Duensing was called up again, and he eventually took Francisco Liriano's place in the rotation. And you all know the rest of the story. He has been lights out, becoming maybe their most reliable starter. Until his last game versus Detroit, he hadn't given up more than three runs in a game. In 53 innings as a starter for the Twins, he has a 2.73 ERA, 5 wins, and 33 strikeouts.

I don't know if Duensing is really this good. I'm not even sure the Twins will place him in the starting rotation next season. He might get traded while his stock is so high. Or maybe he is this good. My guess is he is actually good enough to be a #4-5 starting pitcher, but he's not going to be an ace, and he is pitching better than he really is. I'm guessing over the course of a season he has something more like an ERA of 4.50.

But, one thing that has struck me about Duensing is a comment Gardenhire made. Gardy said that in the minors, pitchers have to throw a certain number of different pitches each game, to make sure they have more than a fastball to throw. But in the majors, you just need to get outs, and you can throw whatever you need to, to get those outs. Interesting...

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Twins sign Miguel Angel Sano

On July 31, when the Twins traded their only legitimate shortstop prospect in Tyler Ladendorf, I wrote the following:

Now here is where this trade could go from being good to great. The Twins were reluctant to part with Ladendorf. In a now related story, the Twins have been one of the leading candidates to sign top Dominican prospect Miguel Angel Sano who also plays shortstop. If the Twins signed Sano to make up for the loss of Ladendorf then I would be extremely happy. Sano has an extremely high ceiling, much higher than Ladendorf's.
Yesterday the Twins announced that they signed shortstop Miguel Angel Sano. Sano is from the Dominican Republic. He is only 16 years old, and people have said they've never seen a kid with his power at that age in the Dominican. The sky is the limit for this kid. He was the top international prospect this year and the Twins got him.

The Twins signed him for $3.15 million dollars. That sets the monetary record for an amateur Latin position player signing. Sano will debut in the GCL Twins rookie team. Joe Mauer's brother will be his manager. Sano says his goal is to be in the majors in two years. That is highly unlikely, but it's not like the Twins have quality shortstops blocking the way.

This is such a huge signing for the Twins on so many levels.

First of all I think he instantly becomes the top Twins prospect. That might be overreacting, but he will definitely be in my top 5 when I start doing my top 50 Twins prospect list during the offseason (which I am very excited to write up).

Second, he fills a huge organizational need, that of middle infield. He might not stick at shortstop, but we shall see.

Sano also is the first big Latin American talent the Twins have signed in recent memory. They haven't been good at scouting the Dominican Republic, so hopefully this marks the beginning of a new trend.

Sano caps off a huge year for the Twins in acquiring top level talent. This year the Twins drafted the supposed 2nd best pitcher in the amateur draft in Kyle Gibson. The Twins also signed the most highly touted European prospect ever, outfielder Max Kepler. And they also shelled out $750K for Dominican shortstop Jorge Polanco.

I haven't agreed with all of Bill Smith's moves, but acquiring those four has increased the stock of the lower minor-leagues very nicely.