Friday, July 31, 2009

Twins acquire SS Orlando Cabrera in exchange for SS Tyler Ladendorf

Oakland GM Billy Beane must have read my last post on Tyler Ladendorf because he was the guy he got in return for Orlando Cabrera. Am I happy with the trade? Yes. But that doesn't mean the Twins gave up nothing to get Cabrera Lets dig a little deeper into the trade. Here are the positives:

-The move shows to Mauer and Morneau that the team is trying to win. Morneau has been saying that Mauer won't resign in 2010 with the Twins if they don't acquire other quality players.

-Mauer and Morneau wanted Cabrera on the team. Cabrera told reporters that last week that every time Mauer and Morneau were on the bases they told Cabrera that they were trying to get him on the team, that they wanted him on the Twins.

-The Twins have has a dreadful middle infield this year, worst in the majors. Cabrera is average, but just average is a huge upgrade from what we had before.

-A new guy will provide a mental boost, a la Shannon Stewart in 2003.

If you read my previous post, you find out that Tyler Ladendorf is a guy with some high upside. He is the best SS prospect we had. But he is no guarantee either and is 3-4 years away. And he's been struggling at the new level he's been called up to. The trade could come back to haunt us, but I wouldn't be too worried about it. I'm just glad we didn't trade away our two top prospects Danny Valencia and Aaron Hicks.

Now here is where this trade could go from being good to great. The Twins were reluctant to part with Ladendorf. In a now related story, the Twins have been one of the leading candidates to sign top Dominican prospect Miguel Angel Sano who also plays shortstop. If the Twins signed Sano to make up for the loss of Ladendorf then I would be extremely happy. Sano has an extremely high ceiling, much higher than Ladendorf's.

Even if that doesn't happen, if this move goes a long ways towards being able to keep Mauer here forever, then it was a grand slam of a trade, regardless of what other consequences come of the trade.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Meet Danny Rams and Tyler Ladendorf

Today we will talk about two of the hottest hitters in the Twins system. They are Tyler Ladendorf and Danny Rams. I haven't put up a Twins top prospect list for a while, but I'd like to put one up sometime soon, although I will probably wait until the end of the minor league season. That doesn't mean I've got somewhat of an idea of who the top ten are. I don't know where I'd put 2009 first round pick Kyle Gibson (when he signs), but he'd have to go in the top 5.

Anyways Ladendorf and Rams will likely be cracking the top 10 list. Before the season started they weren't very high, maybe at best #30. But they have been on fire.

Tyler Ladendorf was the Twins second round pick in last years draft. He plays shortstop, perhaps the weakest area in the Twins organization. Last season he didn't hit much after getting drafted. But this year he has a .439 on-base percentage, a .557 slugging percentage, and a .351 batting average. In 97 at-bats he's hit 8 doubles, 4 homers, 3 steals and 20 RBI. He's walked 14 times compared to 15 strikeouts.

Granted, those aren't a lot of at-bats to judge a guy off of, but if he plays like this for the rest of the season, he will certainly be considered one of the Twins best prospects. Ladendorf is starting to look like he could be the Twins starting shortstop in two or three years.


Danny Rams was the Twins second round pick in 2007. He plays catcher and first base. He is similar to Ladendorf, in that he didn't do much prior to this season to warrant getting excited about. But this season in 106 at-bats, he has 10 homers, 29 RBI, 13 doubles, to go along with a batting average of .327, on-base percentage of .408, while slugging .736!

Again, these are not a lot of at-bats, but if he continues this level of play then you have to consider Rams up there with Chris Parmalee as the Twins top power prospect. He plays the same position as Mauer and Morneau, but I guess he could be the DH or learn another position. With his power bat, they'll find a place for him. Rams looks like he could become a true slugger for the Twins.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Joe Crede, Trade Bait?

Here's a guy the Twins could trade: Joe Crede. He's likely a guy you haven't thought about trading. He's been a fine player, and our best 3rd baseman since Corey Koskie departed. But there are four negatives I see to keeping him around.

First is his on-base percentage is abysmal. It is .299. That is worse than Nick Punto. Thankfully his 14 homers and top notch defense make him valuable.

Second, he's not that durable. He's missed 24 out of 95 games so far. That is probably better than many had dared to hope, but it is nice when your starters don't miss a couple games per week.

Third, he's gone after this year because he is on a one-year deal. He likely won't be a type A or B free agent, which means we won't get an extra draft pick if he signs with someone else. Trading him will give you value in return for his departure.

Finally, and perhaps the biggest reason why Bill Smith might look into trading him, he signed for relatively little, but his contract is laden with several bonuses that kick in with certain number of plate appearances reached. He's going to start hitting a lot of those pretty soon, which means he will cost us a lot more money.

Now, here's the player that makes Crede expendable: Danny Valencia. The guy has hit .308 BA with a .372 OBP and a .522 SLG overall this year. He was called up to AAA recently and in his 100 at-bats there, he has been even better. 5 homers, 10 doubles, 22 RBI, .370 AVG, and an OPS of .999. Those are some great numbers. And he plays solid defense as well. Valencia is our best prospect in the upper two levels of the minors. He's not a Mauer or Morneau caliber player, but I'd say his skill level is more comparable to Denard Span(with more power and less speed), someone who is solid all-around, and who might sneak in a few all-star appearances during his career.

In other words Danny Valencia is a younger, cheaper, better overall player than Joe Crede is right now. I think one of the easiest and best ways to improve the Twins this season while preparing the way for the future is to package Joe Crede in a deal to get a good shortstop or second baseman, and call up Danny Valencia to play third base. It makes too much sense, and that is why it probably won't happen.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

The underrated Jason Kubel

Everyone knows the Twins three best players are the M & M boys (Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau), and their all-star closer Joe Nathan. As for the Twins fourth best player, well that is where opinions vary. Some might try to make an argument for Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Scott Baker, or Nick Blackburn. However, I think Jason Kubel is starting to put an end to this debate.

He's the Twins most underrated player, and perhaps the most underrated player in the AL. Jason Kubel is 5th in the AL in OPS. In fact the Twins have 3 of the top 5 OPS leaders. I never thought I'd see that happen. Anyways, Kubel also ranks 8th in batting average and 5th in slugging. He's pretty much on pace to hit 30 homers and 100 RBI.

So why isn't Jason Kubel in the same tier as Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau? I see two things that he lacks. First is that he isn't that great of a fielder. But I can't blame that on him. He had a terrible knee injury a few years ago that robbed him of much of his athleticism, and that is why he is the DH. Second is that he can't hit lefties still. This is something he can improve on more so than his fielding. He is batting only .216 with an OBP of .284 and a SLG of .311. Certainly not gonna cut it. Still, anyways you cut it, Jason Kubel is clearly the Twins third best everyday player. Maybe instead of the M&M boys it should be the triple j's or something.